atquake

Eathquake musings

Idiocracy

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…Was supposed to be a comedy, not a documentary.  Donald Trump is disproving that.  But OSU is doing it’s part as well, building a school in a tsunami zone.   Is there no common sense left in America?  You be the judge.

OSU Sticks With Plans To Build New Research Center In Tsunami Zone


OSU wants to expand the Hatfield Marine Research Center within the tsunami zone in Newport.

OSU wants to expand the Hatfield Marine Research Center within the tsunami zone in Newport.

John A Winters OSU/Flickr

Oregon State University is doubling down on efforts to build a new marine studies center in the tsunami zone.

The university wants to build a new $50 million research center in Newport.

It looked at three sites, two on high-ground and a third next to its existing buildings on sandy land just a few feet above high tide.

In a statement, school president Ed Ray said not only can the center be built to sustain a magnitude nine earthquake and the associated tsunami, it can serve as a safe zone where people can evacuate to the roof.

OSU professor Chris Goldfinger called the decision shortsighted, “It basically puts students at risk and it puts development at the coast and the interests of the university ahead of student’s lives,” he said.

Goldfinger said building to withstand a tsunami is extremely expensive and the building probably wouldn’t be functional afterwards.

The state legislature approved almost $25 million last year for the project.

 

http://www.opb.org/news/article/oregon-state-university-research-center-plan-tsunami-zone/

Written by eqgold

August 5, 2016 at 9:08 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader?

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On this 316th anniversary of the 1700 Cascadia earthquake, How are we doing locally? While lots of good things are underway to prepare, we also need to avoid potholes and bad decisions as well..

atquake

Remember that show?  Often the adult challengers lost answering simple questions on history, math and other basic topics.  In a real “reality show” the kids in Seaside are beating the pants off the adults again.  The are starting a “Go Fund Me” campaign to move their schools out of the tsunami zone.    Check it out and help them out here: https://www.gofundme.com/cascadiaevent

Don’t Catch This Wave

How are the adults doing?  Well the people of Seaside rejected a bond measure to move the schools, Gold Beach is putting a hospital in the tsunami zone, and OSU and OMSI are putting schools in the tsunami zone.  Really, I’m not making this up.  Embarrassing.

Kids: 1  Adults: -4

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Written by eqgold

January 26, 2016 at 9:34 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader?

with 2 comments

Remember that show?  Often the adult challengers lost answering simple questions on history, math and other basic topics.  In a real “reality show” the kids in Seaside are beating the pants off the adults again.  The are starting a “Go Fund Me” campaign to move their schools out of the tsunami zone.    Check it out and help them out here: https://www.gofundme.com/cascadiaevent

Don’t Catch This Wave

How are the adults doing?  Well the people of Seaside rejected a bond measure to move the schools, Gold Beach is putting a hospital in the tsunami zone, and OSU and OMSI are putting schools in the tsunami zone.  Really, I’m not making this up.  Embarrassing.

Kids: 1  Adults: -4

Written by eqgold

January 8, 2016 at 5:08 am

Posted in Uncategorized

Unprepared: An Oregon Field Guide Special airs October 1 at 8 pm.

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http://www.opb.org/television/programs/ofg/episodes/2701/

Oregon Field Guide spent a year-and-a-half probing into the state of Oregon’s preparedness, and found that when it comes to bridges, schools, hospitals, building codes and energy infrastructure, Oregon lags far behind many quake-prone regions of the country. This sneak preview of the full documentary airing October 1 is a continuation of OPB’s ongoing news series “Unprepared”.

Broadcasts: October 1, 8:00 p.m. [OPB TV], October 3, 7:00 p.m. [OPB TV], October 4, 1:00 a.m. [OPB TV], October 4, 6:00 p.m. [OPB TV], October 18, 9:00 p.m. [OPB PLUS]

Written by eqgold

September 29, 2015 at 5:23 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

“Segment D” ruptures! In Chile.

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The September 16 8.3 earthquake in Chile is a good example of what we suspect the southern most Cascadia ruptures have been like in the past, and will be in the future.  From the offshore paleoseismic record, these events extend from about Cape Blanco Oregon, to either the Mendocino Fault (southern terminus if Cascadia), or possibly a bit shorter, it’s not presently possible to tell.  The Chile version of Segment D generated a ~ 4.7 m tsunami, similar to our models for Cascadia.  Previous studies onshore for the most part have little evidence of Segment D ruptures; they appear to be below the threshold required for generation and preservation of a tsunami or land subsidence record in the areas and environments studied so far.  Bradley Lake for example contains one of the best Cascadia paleostunami records.  It’s a coastal lake with a 5.5 m berm separating it from the sea.  At an average tide, a tsunami must overtop the berm with enough vigor to leave a deposit in the lake.   The barrier largely prevents the recording tsunami from “smaller” earthquakes such as the Segment D ruptures, which also appear to terminate south of Bradley Lake, further decreasing the chance of recording them in the lake.  Of the events in Bradley Lake with potential time correlatives offshore during the past ~ 4500 years (when Bradley was a good recording site), 5 of 7 of them are Segment C, larger events that extend much farther north, and two appear to be segment D events, the rest (~7) are absent.  On the other hand, other southern Cascadia lakes further inland do seem to record these smaller events as turbidites from internal lake sidewall failures, something we published in Morey et al. (2013); ongoing work on this is coming soon.

The main value for us is to look at the Chile earthquake as a good example of what is typical of roughly half of the Cascadia earthquakes of the past are like.  They are not all “The Big One”.   Still these are big, damaging earthquakes locally.

https://i2.wp.com/strangesounds.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/earthquake-chile-tsunami-sept-2015-1.jpghttp://strangesounds.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/earthquake-chile-tsunami-sept-2015-1.jpg

Written by eqgold

September 28, 2015 at 9:10 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Cascadia by the Numbers

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Probabilities… Those pesky things we think we understand, but usually don’t. Take for example earthquake probabilities in Cascadia. This seemingly simple question is not so simple even in a region where we have a lot of data. Since we are unable to predict earthquakes, the best we can do generally is produce forecasts based on either some model of recurrence, or on actual data, or something in between. Models of recurrence have taken big hits recently, with the Sumatra and Tohoku earthquakes essentially terminating a popular long-held model that has been used for decades (Ruff and Kanamori, 1980). That leaves us with probabilities derived from actual data. These are not common because the records of past earthquakes from either the instrumental record, or from paleoseismology, are usually too short to be very useful. But, as luck would have it, Cascadia has one of the longest records available, and so actual data may be used in this case, and may have a reasonable chance of representing reality without major bias. An important question is, is 10,000 years of record and ~43 events long enough?   We really don’t know if it is or it isn’t, but it’s what we have. Most other faults around the world have records, if indeed any data at all is available, ranging from 100-4000 years long at best, with a few longer.

So with 10,000 years of record, what are the probabilities? There have been a lot of numbers batted around, particularly in the past month since the New Yorker article came out. Why the different numbers? The short answer is that there are a number of different sources, and also that the numbers vary spatially.   The earliest records for Cascadia came from the Washington coast, and these numbers are commonly stated as ~ 10-15% chance in 50 years. This was based on a 3500 year record from Willapa Bay.   With the advent of a much longer record using both land and marine paleoseismic data, the probabilities for Washington did not change. This was pure coincidence, because random 3500 year subsample could have given very different numbers. But as luck would have it, they are the same and that’s helpful. The New Yorker article mentioned a “one in three” chance in the next 50 years. This number is based on Cascadia-wide paleoseismology, which shows through a number of both land and marine studies that the recurrence intervals are shorter in southern Cascadia, which appears to have roughly twice the number of events as Washington. One misreading of the Schultz article caused people to believe that the “one in three” applied to all locations in Cascadia, including Seattle, which it does not. It applies to any earthquake that has passed enough criteria to be both recorded in the geologic record and published with peer review in the region. The magnitudes are as low as ~ 8.o, but are not well constrained at all. As such, this number is likely a minimum number, since events at the low end could have been missed, and likely were. Another set of numbers less commonly quoted, are those from the USGS National Seismic Hazard maps, recently updated in 2014. One of the products of these maps is a “probability of exceedance” map.   One useful depiction of the hazard for inland cities is the “2% probability of exceedance” for a ground motion level of 0.3g in a Cascadia M9 earthquake. Most of our cities are located > 100 km from the coast so ground motions at that level are pretty high at that range. Despite the small number (a loop in an airplane is ~ 4g), the long duration of a subduction earthquake and high level of URM building stock makes even modest 0.3 g shaking very damaging. But 0.3g represents an extreme event, known as the “2500 year event”, something that repeats only every 2500 years. In Cascadia, that means one of the four largest events out of 43, the biggest of the big. So, a 2% probability of exceeding an extreme event is low, only 2%. Or as a colleague referred to it recently, a 98% chance that it won’t happen in the next 50 years! This sounds reassuring, but it isn’t.

Yet another way to look at the same numbers is to ignore probabilities, and just look at the raw data.  Rather than show a confusing plot, I’ll just say it in plain English.  The 10,000 year paleoseismic record includes now ~ 43 events, including ~ 23 “smaller” ones in the southern half of Cascadia (~M8-8.7)  each pair of events has an interval between them, and of course these have large uncertainties.  But in rough terms, we have presently exceeded ~ 75% of those intervals since the last earthquake 315 years ago.  What?  That sounds like a more alarming number than the ones described above!  But it isn’t, it comes from the same data.  50 years from now, we will have exceeded ~ 85% of the past intervals, leaving only 6 that were clearly longer than 365 years.  Looking at data in this way is called a failure analysis, the same type used to decide what the warranty should be on a disk drive.  Obviously it should expire before lots of them start to fail, and you simply get the data from the repair department to calculate it.  A fault is simply a “part” that fails under stress, and with enough data, its failure data can be treated the same way.

Here are a couple of other numbers that might be interesting.  In northern Sumatra prior to 2004, many earth scientists, including me, would have assessed the seismic potential of the area as near zero probability of generating an M9 earthquake.  The reasons?  First, the old Ruff and Kanamori model, using plate age and convergence rate predicted very low chances there.  The rate of convergence was thought to be very low (highly oblique, potentially zero convergence), and the plate age is pretty old, both factors a recipe for no significant strain accumulation, and no earthquakes of significance.  Art Frankel pointed out that in 2004 a seismic assessment was published (Peterson et al., 2004) that did not use the older models, and considered the historical great earthquakes further south in central Sumatra.  So awareness of the problem was on the rise, yet nearly all of the 2004 rupture area was north of their study and those by Sieh and colleagues, and very poorly known. This system failed in a spectacular way (~ Mw 9.15) when the informal probabilities would have been rated very low, and no data existed with which to do any better.  Northeast Japan was in much the same boat, and failed with the same near zero consensus probability of an M9 earthquake.  Even if we take into account the paleoseismic data (published in 2001 but not considered in the Japanese hazard assessment; Minoura et al., 2001), the probability would have been ~ 45-55% in 2010 for the next 50 years based on ~ 3000 years of record (assuming that the 3000 year record is representative, doubtful).  If we use a more typical value for variability over the long term, the number would be even lower, 10-50%.  The point is that failure doesn’t occur when the probability numbers hit 100%, it may well occur at much lower values, 50% or less in the case of Japan in 2011.  So be careful with stats!

Written by eqgold

August 18, 2015 at 5:28 am

Posted in Uncategorized

The Meaning of Toast

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The recent New Yorker article about Cascadia earthquakes generated a ton of talk around the region and the country in the last couple of weeks. http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one?

The article was seen by some as alarmist, but it presented an accurate, unvarnished view of our future.  Some of the sensationalism came from secondary media who tried to tell the story, but exaggerated and distorted it significantly.  One of the most quoted lines in the article was the comment from Kenneth Murphy, head of FEMA Region X who said: “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.” Many people read this as “everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast“, which is pretty different.  As a manager in an emergency management agency, they have to have some initial plan, created in advance, because assessment of what happened will take time and resources all by itself, and the agency can’t wait for that.  They need to trigger a reaction without that, hence the key words “operating assumption”   He didn’t say, and I think didn’t mean that everything will in fact be toast.  Kathryn Schultz just published a follow up article that does a great job of describing in laymans terms what is likely to happen, and enumerates various aspects of it here: http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/how-to-stay-safe-when-the-big-one-comes.

As she says, it sounds pretty “toast like”.  But it’s important to know that as bad as it will be, there won’t be total destruction west of I5, nor is I5 an important boundary, it’s just a handy reference point that everyone can relate to.

Here is a nice complement to these articles, an online app that can help at least Oregonians type in their address and get back some information about what to expect.  http://www.opb.org/aftershock/

Clearing up the meaning of toast is good, but it changes nothing about the long road ahead for the region and all the hard choices required to become a region that can take a punch and not go down.  I hope we make it.

Chris

Written by eqgold

July 31, 2015 at 6:25 am

Posted in Uncategorized

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